When every solution seems to have big negatives it’s
a sign that the system is out of whack, we
need to look at the bigger, long term picture and think systemically.
Last week Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner told
angry Congressman Committee that in deciding to bailout AIG, policy makers
faced a “tragic choice” – do nothing or allow the entire financial system to
collapse. Geithner, however, acknowledged that the bailout “sets the stage and sows the seeds of a future crisis.”
When President Obama recently said he reduce the deficit by cutting
hundreds of billions from federal programs to cut the deficit, Republicans were
quick to label the announcement as “too little too late.” On the other Democrats
argued that cutbacks would thwart efforts to stimulate jobs and economic growth.
When EPA Administrator
Lisa Jackson announced that the Agency would regulate carbon emissions to
battle global warming environmentalists cheered while the fossil fuel industry
and energy state Democrat and Republican members of Congress warned that the
move would hurt the already battered economy and cause further job losses.
In all three cases,
predicting the outcome of a policy initiative is difficult. That’s typical of
complex systems where “systemic instability reins” and where a push or jolt in
any direction can have unforeseen results that extend into the realms of
economics, politics, the environment and national security. Such systems lack
resilience – the ability to absorb and recover from shocks and to adapt to
changes. One way to look at this is to
imagine yourself in a canoe and one of your companions jumps up excitedly
because he feels a bite on his line. The canoe starts to tip and you shift your
weight to compensate; the canoe starts to rock and then a gust of wind
reinforces your action and ……!!! Canoes
are not so stable. People have known this for a long time. Well before the tech
age they have come up some very effective solutions. One is pictured below.
Photo of canoe with an outrigger on one side of
the canoe. If the canoe tips toward the outrigger, the outriggers buoyancy
opposes the downward tipping. If the canoe tips away from the outrigger, the
outrigger rises above the water but is pulled back by gravity. The young
lads from the Island Kingdom of Tonga. So the question is how to build resilience into systems so that the boat doesn’t sink when “things happen.” Here is one example;
According to Forbes, “Because of high GDP per capita, welfare benefits, a low Gini index, and political stability, the Danish living standards are among the highest in the world.”
The Danish mixed (welfare state + capitalism) is based on
much higher tax rates. Currently raising taxes and so-called “entitlements” in
the U.S.
would be difficult. However, if we continue to see recession and high or higher
unemployment rates the currents may shift.